All eyes on UFC 307

UFC 307 takes place this coming weekend (October 5) in Salt Lake City with a 12-fight card that’s headed by two massive Championship title bouts.

At the very top of the bill is Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree, Jr., who face off in a UFC light-heavyweight title clash. They will be preceded by Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena in a UFC bantamweight championship title fight.    

some value for the bettors

But among the ten other bouts, there are some mouth-waterers, like Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista in a bantamweight clash, Kayla Harrison vs. Ketlen Vieira in a women’s clash at the same weight, and Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland in a world middleweight division bout. We’ll take a look at all of the five main fights and try and identify some value for the bettors.

Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree, Jr.

This one has knockout written all over it. Both fighters are renowned for their big hitting and explosiveness, so no one expects this to go the distance.

As a former UFC middleweight champion, Pereira is looking to establish himself at the heavier weight and has all the tools needed to do so. But in Rountree, the Brazilian comes up against a skilled and powerful fighter who’s a natural light-heavyweight and is aiming to prove he belongs in the division’s elite pool of fighters. Even at 34, he’s an improving fighter who is now adding skills to his natural aggression and relentlessness.

Everything points to this being a titanic battle in the Octagon and is a tough one to call. The odds currently favor Pereira who is listed as short as -450 with some bookmakers, while Rountree is the outsider at +360.

It will be a battle of experience and tactics versus aggression, as the veteran Pereira will likely look to stay measured and controlled. His usual style is to work on the low kicks in the early stages and then and turn up the heat as the fight progresses. Rountree, meanwhile, is almost certain to come out swinging from the word go.

The fighter that can dictate the tempo of the fight will be the likely victor, and it is possible that Rountree’s all-action style will leave him open to Pereira’s calculated counters in the early stages.

Kickboxing skills could be key

Pereira’s extensive experience in both kickboxing and MMA gives him a head start here, and with a powerful left hook and crunching leg kicks, he has the ability to finish fights decisively if the opportunity is there. He has a string of wins over high-level opponents in middleweight and light heavyweight and so can handle the big occasion and the big nights.  

But Rountree’s explosiveness and natural aggression have made him a fan favorite in this division for some time, and it’s worth remembering that his background is in Muay Thai. This makes him a more all-round fighter than many give him credit for and has armed him with the ability to kick and punch to a level that makes him a very dangerous opponent.

Rountree has developed the mental side of his technique, too, and says he is on a journey of self-improvement both of the mind and of his skills.

KO’d kickboxing legend Gokhan Saki

This fight offers an intriguing clash of styles and personalities; both are skilled and capable of delivering an early knockout. If Rowntree can make his aggressive approach count early on and can upset Perreira’s patient and measured rhythm then, against the odds, it could be decisive. Rowntree’s hand speed and power, as shown when he KO’d kickboxing legend Gokhan Saki, can be the key here, especially if he can counter Perreira’s early leg work.

For me, the value is with the straight win for Rowntree, Jr.

Pick: Khalil Rountree, Jr. to win (+360)

Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena

Pennington has been a force of nature in this weight division and has proven herself to be an elite fighter over most of the last decade. Her extensive skillset and determination have become her go-to qualities over that period but on Saturday her defense of the bantamweight titles promises to be one of her toughest yet.

Pena’s pedigree is unquestioned, and as a former champion, she knows what it takes to reach the pinnacle of this sport and perform consistently at the highest level. After a two-year hiatus, Pena is desperate to return with a bang and what better way than to win a title in the process. But to do so, she has to prove that she has lost none of her skills or appetite during her spell away and show that she remains a genuine contender.

Given all of the above, this bout promises to be a thriller. Pennington will be looking to consolidate her current dominance of the division, while Pena will be looking to re-establish herself.

There’s also an interesting clash of styles to add to the mix, with Pennington being known for her impressive ground skills and her tireless resilience. When these two things come together, she looks unstoppable. Over the years, she has also developed an ability to read a fight and change it in her favor when things appear to be going against her.

A mix of power and aggression

By contrast, with Pena, what you see is what you get, and her method is all about aggression and tremendous striking power – traits that must not be underestimated even after a two-year absence.

The odds favor Pennington, who starts as a -175 favorite, but Pena’s +150 for the win recognizes the fact she has top level pedigree in the sport and will likely come out swinging. Pena’s fiery attitude may well help her overcome any nerves and there’s no doubting the fact she has the tools to win this fight if the cards fall in her favor.  

It basically boils down to Pennington’s good form and calculated technique against Pena’s explosive power and desire to return with a bang. If Pena can land a few early blows, this could be another upset, but my money is on Pennington using her guile to continue her winning run.  

Pick: Raquel Pennington to win (-175)

Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista

This was originally on the preliminary card for UFC 307, but the postponement of Aljamain Sterling vs. Movsar Evloev due to injury (it’s now scheduled for UFC 310 in December) meant a promotion to the main card and fight #3.

This gives the experienced Aldo – a former UFC and WEC featherweight champion who returned to the sport from retirement early in 2024 – a chance for a second successive victory. Earlier in the year, he announced his return in emphatic style with a signature win over fellow Brazilian Jonathan Martinez on home soil.

this is a step up in quality for him

For the USA’s Bautista, it offers the opportunity to make it seven straight wins in the Octagon, three of which have been achieved by submission. But this is a step up in quality for him, and he will need to be at his very best to beat Aldo, who is seven years his senior.        

Interestingly, the bookies make Bautista the -175 favorite – based mainly on his outstanding run of form – with Aldo the +145 outsider. But the win by Aldo over Martinez was significant and shows he’s back to a high level. If he makes a positive start to this fight, Aldo can make light of the +145.

Pick: Jose Aldo to win (+145)

Kayla Harrison vs. Ketlen Vieira

Harrison’s route to UFC is an interesting one, having been a former two-time Professional Fighters League (PFL) champion and two-time Olympic judo gold medalist. This is just her second UFC fight, but her PFL record was a very impressive one at 17-1, which included women’s lightweight titles in 2019 and 2021.

beat former UFC women’s bantamweight champion Holly Holm by a second-round submission

She just missed out on being a three-time tournament winner when she lost to former UFC fighter Larissa Pacheco in the 2022 final. She made her UFC debut in April of this year at UFC 300, where she beat former UFC women’s bantamweight champion Holly Holm by a second-round submission.

Vieira, who has a 14-3 record, is more experienced at UFC level, having joined 2016 with an already-impressive 6-0 record. She then reeled off four straight wins, via three decisions and a submission, including eye-catching wins over Cat Zingano and Sara McMann. Her winning run came to an end in late 2019, however, when she was knocked out by Irene Aldana.

Since then, Vieira’s form has been inconsistent with four wins and two losses. In her two most recent fights, she lost a split decision to Pennington before beating Pannie Kianzad in July 2023. But there’s no escaping that at 92.9%, Vieira has the best takedown defense in the UFC’s women’s bantamweight division.

The bookies cannot see past a Harrison win, though, and have her as short as -650 and Viera as long as +525. On that basis, the value bet here is going for a quick fight that doesn’t make it to round three.

PICK: Under 2.5 rounds (+130)

Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland

Dolidze starts this one as a +140 outsider despite a decent fighting record of 13-3 MMA, which includes a UFC 7-3 record. The USA’s Kevin Holland, whose record by comparison is 26-11 MMA, 13-8 UFC, starts this middleweight clash as -163 favorite.

But, as the odds suggest, there is little from which to choose between these two other than Holland being five years younger than his opponent.

Georgian Dolidze’s most recent fight was a decent one and one that got him back on track, when he outworked and outfought Anthony Smith at UFC 303. Prior to that win, the now Las Vegas-based fighter had seen back-to-back losses but is now in sight of his first UFC winning streak since 2022.

For Holland, this was supposed to be a match up with Chris Curtis but that one was postponed due to his opponent picking up an injury. Dolidze though will offer Holland a stern test as the American now looks to start a winning run all of his own. In his most recent fight he beat Michal Oleksiejczuk in UFC 302 by a clever armbar submission, but before that he lost twice on the spin to Jack Della Maddalena and Michael Page.

This looks likely to be close, but I see Holland’s superior technique giving him the edge.

PICK: Holland to win (-163)