Verstappen and Red Bull dominance

At the start of the 2024 F1 season, Max Verstappen was odds-on to win his fourth consecutive world drivers’ championship. Likewise, Red Bull was odds-on to win its fourth consecutive constructor’s championship.

For some, the question wasn’t if they would win their respective championships, but how soon would they win them. The bookies were taking bets on how many of the 24 races it would take for Red Bull and Verstappen to claim their titles, with some experts even predicting it could be game over by the summer break – race 14.  

Seven races into the season and nothing had changed apart from the odds, which had got even shorter. Some bookies were probably even contemplating paying out on those who had Verstappen and Red Bull on their betting slips.

Red Bull with the same look of supremacy

From Bahrain to Imola, it was Red Bull all the way. Seven consecutive pole positions for Verstappen, five turned into race wins, and Red Bull with the same look of supremacy that F1 fans have become familiar with since the start of 2022. And even though Sergio Perez could not match the pace and points tally of his teammate, Red Bull still dominated the constructor’s championship. Verstappen even went on to win races eight and nine.

Off-track turmoil

But behind the scenes, even although their on-track supremacy appeared undimmed, there was trouble afoot. It began in February with rumors surfacing of team boss Christian Horner being accused by a female Red Bull employee of sexual harassment and coercive, controlling behavior. Since then, the problems at Red Bull have escalated.

As it transpired, an internal investigation at Red Bull found in favor of Horner and eventually the female employee was fired, but the unrest it caused within the team and wider organization has been immense.

The first to break rank publicly was Jos Verstappen – father of Max – who was critical of Horner’s behavior and of him creating instability in the team. His solution was that Horner should be fired – something that wasn’t taken on board by the Red Bull chiefs but turned out to be the first shot fired in a feud between the two that has carried on throughout the season.  

Since that opening salvo, there have continued to be barbed comments heading from the Verstappen camp towards Horner and it came to a head again at the Austrian Grand Prix.

Verstappen senior had initially been asked to drive the Red Bull RB8 in the event’s Legends’ Parade – an offer he accepted – but at the eleventh hour, an edict said to have come from Red Bull management denied him the opportunity. Verstappen blamed Horner and the feud rumbled on.

Off-track troubles spill onto the track

Adding further fuel to the fire has been Red Bull’s special advisor, the controversial Dr. Helmut Markho, who went public with his view that Jos Verstappen was a bigger fan of Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff than Horner. With the unrest at Red Bull leading to speculation that Max may seek a new challenge away from the Austrian team, Markho’s comments did little to quell that rumor.

The most recent twist in the Horner/Jos Verstappen feud came before the recent Dutch Grand Prix in Zand Voort. Horner was accused by Verstappen of ignoring his son’s warnings in the early part of the season that there was a gradual drop-off in the performance of the RB20 – a claim that he denied. ?

the Red Bull boss and his number one driver maintain publicly that there is no fracture in their relationship

All of the above adds up to a team in turmoil off the track, which eventually impacted its performance on it. And even though the Red Bull boss and his number one driver maintain publicly that there is no fracture in their relationship, it feels impossible for the ongoing off-track issues to not have had some impact. Wind the clock back 12 months and here was a team in harmony, which had one of the fastest, most driver-compliant cars ever to grace a Formula 1 track. But not anymore. ????????

Newey’s costly departure

Another offshoot of Horner’s alleged indiscretions was news that Adrian Newey – legendary F1 car designer and creator of the sensational RB18 and RB19 – has decided he, too, wants a new challenge away from the Red Bull team. ?While Newey cited that feeling “tired” and wanting a fresh challenge was at the root of his decision, the timing of the announcement suggested that the disharmony in the team also played a part.?

And he will be missed. Not only did Newey play a huge part in the creation and success of the RB18 and RB19, but in his time at Red Bull, the team has won seven drivers’ championships and six constructors’ titles. In his entire F1 career, the 65-year-old has won no less than 13 drivers’ titles and 12 constructors’ championships, having also worked for Williams?and?McLaren.

Newey’s ever-reducing impact on the RB20 – he is no longer permitted to participate in development meetings – is almost certain to have impacted its performance. It can be no coincidence that his waning influence has coincided with the car’s downturn in performance.     

But there is also the small matter of the RB20 not improving while its rivals have all benefited from significant upgrades, in particular the McLarens of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. And this too could be a problem of Red Bull’s own making.

Cost cap misdemeanor

Let’s not forget that Red Bull was found to have breached the Formula 1 cost cap in 2022 – the year of Verstappen’s second consecutive world drivers’ title – and was punished with a $7m fine and a 10% reduction in the time they could spend developing their car in the wind tunnel.

Given how long it took the FIA to arrive at that decision, it’s likely that reduced wind tunnel time would have impacted their development plans for the 2024 car (the RB20) rather than 2023’s RB19.

The RB19 was so dominant – it won both 2023 championships with considerable ease – that little development was needed on the car in-season, so it was the 2024 that was compromised by the FIA penalty.

While this won’t be the only reason for Red Bull’s travails in 2024, it’s likely to have had an impact, one that all of their main rivals have seized upon.

RB’s car design has simply been too good

Another factor that has led to the gap between Red Bull and its rivals narrowing is the fact that RB’s car design has simply been too good. So perfect was the design of the RB18 and RB19, there was little room for the RB20 to improve.

While other teams had lots of development room in which to improve their car, the Red Bull was so good – so stable and fast – that there were only a few minor tweaks available to them that could make their car better. Their margins were fine.

Rivals close the gap

Thanks to Newey, the ground effects on their car – the phenomenon by which these cars create downforce to enable them to grip the track – helped them to steal a march on all the other teams. Only now, two-and-a-half seasons after the new regulations came into effect, have the others managed to crack the code. Red Bull, by definition, had nowhere to go and so effectively stood still as their rivals prospered – some more than others.

The biggest beneficiaries, and by some distance, of regular upgrades to its car has been McLaren. Even Red Bull themselves admit that the Woking-based team now has the fastest and most driver-compliant car.

All of which makes for a fascinating end to the 2024 season.

Eight-point gap in constructor’s championship

With eight races still to go, Max Verstappen’s lead in the drivers’ championship has been cut to 72 points. While this, on the surface, may look like an insurmountable lead, the momentum is with Norris, and Verstappen hasn’t won a race since race ten in Spain – six races ago. ?

And the constructor’s championship is even closer. Red Bull’s lead over McLaren, following their second and third in Monza, is just eight points.

the most cutthroat and brutal on the grid

Only time will tell if Red Bull can regain the initiative in this season’s championships but as things stand, they appear to be a team in crisis. The disharmony behind the scenes is clear and has spilt onto the track. The team known to be the most cutthroat and brutal on the grid when it comes to decision making has turned in on itself.

What happens next in Baku on September 15 will be fascinating. Many questions are being asked of Red Bull right now, but whether or not they have the answers is unclear.