All systems go for EURO 2024

It’s finally upon us. Qualification for the 2024 EUROs started on March 23, 2023, and 449 days later the finals are about to begin.

It all kicks off in Munich on Friday night when hosts Germany take on Scotland in Group A and concludes a month later with the final in Berlin’s Olympiastadion. 24 teams, ten hosts cities, six groups, a knockout phase starting with a round-of-16. On the evening of July 14, the new European champions will be crowned.

Can England finally win their first major tournament since 1966?

England start as tournament favorites, but the highly fancied French are not far behind. Neither are the hosts, Germany. But who offers the best value? Can England finally win their first major tournament since 1966? And who will make their way out of the group stage and into the knockout phase?

We’ll start by looking at the groups. The top two qualify for the round-of-16 automatically and will be joined by the four third-placed teams with the best records:

GROUP A

• Germany
• Scotland
• Hungary
• Switzerland

Germany start as favorites to win the group (-250) and are third favorites (+450) to win the tournament. Home advantage is something they will lean on heavily as the tournament progresses, but they look unlikely to need that advantage to progress from Group A, which is not among the strongest.

New head coach Julian Nagelsmann has talked midfield maestro Toni Kroos out of international retirement for one final hurrah but also refreshed his squad with a sprinkling of talented youngsters. The three-time winners of the tournament have a chance.

Scotland enjoyed an excellent qualifying campaign, coming a close second to Spain in the process, and arrive in Germany with confidence. They will also have a loud, vociferous, and large-in-number Tartan Army behind them but odds of +800 to win the group are a fair reflection.

Manager Steve Clarke has picked a talented, youthful squad but it is hard to see them beating Germany or Switzerland. Their best bet looks to be as a third-place qualifier.

For Hungary, making their fifth appearance at the EUROs, there is genuine belief they can make it to the knockout phase. Whether they can do so as group winners is a different story but at +600, they provide decent value, and also at -150 to progress.

topping Group G with an impressive 5-3-0 record

The Hungarians qualified for the tournament in style – topping Group G with an impressive 5-3-0 record – and under the management of Italian Marco Rossi have carried on the improvement evident at Euro 2020. They have what it takes to make it to the knockout phase.      

On paper, Switzerland enjoyed a similarly impressive qualifying campaign – losing just once in Group I – but their performances were criticized and there was a very public falling out between manager Murat Yakin and captain Granit Xhaka.

Despite this, Yakin will still lead Switzerland to the EUROs although changes have since been made to their coaching set-up and to the team’s tactical approach. Whether this will be enough to transform the mood in the Swiss camp remains to be seen, but at +550 to win Group A they are well worth a look.

Pick: Germany and Hungary to finish top two (+250)

GROUP B

• Spain
• Croatia
• Italy
• Albania

After Spain’s disappointing 2022 World Cup – they were knocked out by Morrocco in the round-of-16 – they dispensed with the services of coach Luis Enrique and replaced him with Luis de la Fuente. The result was an invigorated Spanish team who went on to win last summer’s Nations League final.

They head to Euro 2024 as one of the teams capable of winning it but without the sky-high expectation of Spanish teams of the past. This makes them dangerous opponents.  While the -110 on offer for them to win the group is worth considering and the +900 on offer for them to win the whole thing looks great value.

Croatia have punched above their weight for most of the last decade and have every chance of doing so again in Germany. They are listed at a generous +450 to win Group B and are well worth a punt, even in what has been labeled the tournament’s ‘group of death.’ ?

Croatia will again lean heavily on experience, in particular on captain Luka Modric

Veteran head coach Zlatko Dalic is still in charge despite some negative noise in the Croatian press, and his squad will have a familiar look. Croatia will again lean heavily on experience, in particular on captain Luka Modric. This may be the 39-year-old’s final tournament, so he will be looking to go out in style. The big question is, does this ageing group still have the legs to go all the way?

As current holders, Italy will be unfazed by not being favorites to win this group or among the group considered potential winners of the tournament. Being unfancied suits the Italian mentality and new coach Luciano Spalletti has embraced talk of his team being underdogs.    

Spalletti has changed both personnel and tactics since taking over from Roberto Mancini. His team will have a very different look to the one that beat England at Wembley on penalties in the Euro 2020 final. But they have talent and at +170 to win Group B, they shouldn’t be ignored.

Albania are group’s minnows. They are +2500 to win it and realistically have only a small chance of making the top two. Victory for them will be going toe-to-toe with Spain, Croatia, and Italy and giving a good account of themselves.

What can’t be overlooked is that they won qualifying Group E and that in their only other EURO Finals in 2016, they managed a win over Romania. If they can manage another win this time around it will represent progress. Under their Brazilian manager, Sylvinho, they will be well organized and not easy to beat. ??

Pick: Italy to win Group B (+200)

GROUP C

• Slovenia
• Denmark
• Serbia
• England

This is only the second time in their history that Slovenia have qualified for the EUROs. Unsurprisingly, they start as the group’s outsiders (+1400), but their qualifying campaign was an impressive one, only finishing second in Group H behind Denmark on goal difference.

Manager Matja? Kek will lean heavily on the top-flight experience of captain/keeper Jan Oblak, who plays in La Liga for Atletico Madrid, and young RB Leipzig striker Benjamin ?e?ko Slovenia. If both play well and drag along some of their less-experienced teammates, they could still spring a surprise. They are +160 to progress. 

Denmark may have pipped Slovenia to top place in their qualifying group only on goal difference, but they arrive in Germany with greater expectations. They made it to the semifinal of 2020 EUROs and will be hopeful of going a long way in the tournament.

Christian Eriksen remains key for the Danes and forms the engine room of the team alongside Tottenham’s Pierre-Emile H?jbjerg. Both will need to play well for them to make the group’s top two. The +400 on offer for them to win the isn’t particularly tempting.

Serbia are the group’s outsiders but will be well organized and not easy to beat. If they can frustrate England in their opener, they will fancy their chances of making it to the knockout phase. But this is a Serbia team that enters the tournament with low expectations.

the +600 on offer for the Serbs to win the group looks fair

They remain heavily reliant on veteran striker Aleksandar Mitrovic for goals and the combined creative talents of Dusan Tadic and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic. While the +600 on offer for the Serbs to win the group looks fair, the -225 on offer for them to qualify from it looks good value.

It’s been a long time since England went into a major tournament as favorites but that’s where they find themselves. Despite an underwhelming couple of warm-up games, Gareth Southgate’s men are -300 to win Group C and a miserly +300 to win the whole tournament.

Whether England deserve the mantle as favorites is another matter but in 20-year-old Jude Bellingham they have one of the world’s best players and in Harry Kane, arguably, the world’s most reliable goal scorer. Southgate’s main problems lie in defense where they have kept just three clean sheets in their last ten games.

Picks: England to win Group C (-300) / Serbia to qualify (-225)

GROUP D

• Poland
• Netherlands
• Austria
• France

Poland was the last team to qualify for these finals after beating Wales 5-4 in a playoff penalty shoot-out following a disappointing qualifying campaign. They were forced down the playoff route after finishing third in Group E behind Albania and the Czech Republic, winning just three of their eight games. New manager Michal Probierz took over late in the campaign and helped them limp to the finals.

But they find themselves in a tough group and even the presence of goal-scoring machine Robert Lewandowski looks unlikely to be enough to take them to the knockout phase. The Poles are -1400 to win Group D and +180 to progress with good reason.

By contrast, the Netherlands will be hopeful of making it to the knockout phase even though coach Ronald Koeman’s squad has been hit by injuries. They qualified in second place in Group B, losing just twice – both against France – but winning every other game.

the Dutch are good enough to go toe-to-toe with anyone in the tournament

Koeman has successfully integrated some talented youngsters into his group alongside veterans like Virgil van Dijk and Memphis Depay. If they click, the Dutch are good enough to go toe-to-toe with anyone in the tournament and at +275 to win the group, they represent the value bet. ??

Austria also has ambitions to go deep in this tournament. At +700 to win the group and -150 to progress from it, they too represent good value. Manager Ralf Rangnick has put together a team that combines attractive, progressive soccer with some defensive solidity, conceding just seven goals in eight qualifiers.

But they head into this tournament without their star man, Real Madrid’s David Alaba, so key to their chances will be how they fill the void left by him. So important is Alaba to the group, Rangnick has given him permission to be a non-playing member of the Austrian party in Germany.  

For France, the bookies’ second-favorites, expectations are high. Player for player, Didier Deschamps’ squad is the strongest in the tournament. While England have, on paper, a strong XI, the French have strength in depth. In Kylian Mbappe, they have probably the current best player in the world and a supporting cast of superstars who all play in Europe’s elite leagues.   

At -200 to win the group and +400 to win the whole tournament, the French don’t offer great value to the bettors but will almost certainly be there or thereabouts. Any team that goes further in this tournament than the French looks almost certain to win it.

Picks: France to win Group D (-300) / Austria to qualify (-150)

GROUP E

• Belgium
• Slovakia
• Romania
• Ukraine

Belgium’s so-called ‘golden generation,’ under the management of Roberto Martinez, were never able to bring home the major trophy many predicted. After a disappointing Qatar World Cup, Martinez was sacked and replaced by Domenico Tedesco, under whom they have been unbeaten since March 2023.

Oddly, expectations for the Belgians are mooted this time around and that may work in their favor. While Eden Hazard, Axel Witsel, and Toby Alderweireld are no longer part of the squad, key players like Kevin de Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku still remain. While they are clear favorites to win Group E at -188, the +1800 on offer for them to win the tournament represents outstanding value.

For Slovakia, this is their third consecutive EUROs – exiting at the round-of-2016 stage in 2016 and the group stage in 2020 (2021). This time around, under the management of Francesco Calzona, they have ambitions of making it to the last eight, but they head to Germany with one of the oldest squads.

Calzona has tried to address a lack of goals

At +750 to win the group and -120 to qualify from it, the Slovakians offer decent value and will entertain more than previous Slovakian teams who relied on a defense-first style of play. Calzona has tried to address a lack of goals but only if they can do this while still staying tight defensively will they progress.

This is the first major tournament Romania have qualified for since 2016 and so they arrive in Germany with modest ambitions. But they have a squad that’s united, has spirit, and works very hard. They were also unbeaten in winning their qualifying group, which included a win over Switzerland.  

While they lack big names, in midfield they have the talented Nicolae Stanciu and up-front Dennis Man to whom they will look to score the bulk of their goals. The bookies don’t rate their chances of going far but at -150 to qualify from the group they offer reasonable value.

After missing out on the 2022 World Cup in heartbreaking fashion in the playoffs, Ukraine made no such mistake this time around. Last-gasp wins over Bosnia and Herzegovina in the playoff semifinal and Iceland in the final saw them through to a much-deserved place in the finals.

For obvious reasons, they will play on a wave of emotion but also have a talented group of players, many of whom play for Europe’s elite teams – like Arsenal’s Oleksandr Zinchenko. They are second favorites in the group, behind Belgium, and are a miserly -400 to progress to the knockout phase.

Picks: Belgium to win Group E (-188) / Romania to qualify (-150)

GROUP F

• Turkey
• Georgia
• Portugal
• Czech Republic          

Turkey qualified for Euro 2024 by winning Group D ahead of Croatia and Wales. In an impressive campaign, they won five of their eight games, losing just once. So, they enter the tournament with high hopes and renewed belief. Manager Vincenzo Montella took charge of the Crescent Stars in September and has succeeded in changing tactics and instilling some much-needed discipline in the squad.

The bookies have the Turks listed as a miserly -333 to qualify from Group F as second-favorites but at a far more generous +400 to win it. That would mean them beating Portugal, which looks a stretch, but they have some talented individuals, like Real Madrid youngster Arda Guler.

For Georgia, to qualify for their first-ever major tournament makes them winners before a ball has been kicked. Despite a disappointing fourth-place finish in Group A, they had a playoff lifeline thanks to a good showing in the Nations League. They made it to Germany after a semifinal win over Luxembourg and a penalty shoot-out win against Greece in the final.

So, while they start as underdogs, the spirit and organization instilled by French manager Willy Sagnol gives them a chance of causing an upset. To come away with a win would be huge for the Georgians, who have some talented individuals in their ranks, including Napoli’s Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.

Roberto Martinez has an embarrassment of riches available to him in attacking areas

Portugal starts as favorites (-250) to win this group and are listed at a ridiculous -8000 to qualify from it. Manager Roberto Martinez has an embarrassment of riches available to him in attacking areas – Ronaldo, Bernardo Silva, Rafael Le?o, Jo?o Félix, Diogo Jota, Pedro Neto and Gon?alo Ramos – and anything other than a semifinal place will be regarded as failure.

With Cristiano Ronaldo having now reached the ripe old age of 39, this must be his last tournament. However, he remains a difficult player to incorporate in a squad in terms of harmony and this will be one of Martinez’s biggest challenges. If he can succeed, the Portuguese can go a long way.

And finally, the Czech Republic, who head to Germany with both hope and expectation.  But they also provide a sense of the unknown having appointed coach Ivan Hasek after qualification for the EUROs had been achieved. While Hasek is a vastly experienced operator, it is still unclear as to the tactical direction he will take this team in.

But it’s a squad that has talent and experience and is led from the front by West Ham midfielder, Tomá? Sou?ek. They have qualified for every EUROs since becoming the Czech Republic, so have big tournament experience. At +500 to win the group and -275 to qualify from it, they offer decent value.

WHO’S GOING TO WIN IT?

While England remain the bookies favorites (+350), most pundits agree that in terms of depth and explosive talent, France (+400) have the edge. In Kylian Mbappe they have an undisputed matchwinner.

For England’s part, as runners-up in the 2020 tournament, the next progressive step would be to win it, but they must overcome their habit of struggling to get over the line against the elite teams.

As hosts, Germany at +450 cannot be ignored, but neither can Spain (+800) who may find the rare tag of underdog to their liking.

If it’s a value long shot that you’re looking for, look no further than Belgium. The +2000 on offer for them to win the tournament looks excellent value given the talent still present in their squad.

Pick – France to win the 2024 EUROs (+400)