A mêlée-a-trois

“You see, in this world there’s two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig.”

A Mexican standoff as distinct from a regular stand-off is a fight in which there are at least three participants involved. As a cinema buff, when I hear the term, I immediately think of a few movies. I remember the rooftop scene at the end of Scorcese’s The Departed. I recall that other great rooftop moment at the denouement of Kassovitz’s La Haine, as poignant as it was ambiguous. Of course, I also cast my mind back to that blood-soaked warehouse scene in Reservoir Dogs, which was itself Tarantino’s almost frame-for-frame homage to a scene in Lam’s City on Fire.

Profuse sweating, eyeball flickering, and lots and lots of Clint Eastwood wincing

The most iconic Mexican standoff in cinematic history, however, belongs to Leone’s The Good, The Bad and The Ugly. This one is so epic that even the kids will know it from gifs and memes. Profuse sweating, eyeball flickering, and lots and lots of Clint Eastwood wincing made this mêlée-a-trois especially tense as Blondie, Angel Eyes, and Tuco all point their guns at each other. 

The poker world is currently having its own Mexican standoff as the three biggest live brands in the game – the European Poker Tour (EPT), World Poker Tour (WPT), and World Series of Poker (WSOP) – go to war for poker’s lucrative end of year liquidity. Some think that the live poker boom is big enough that all three festivals will be a success. Others think that ‘this town ain’t big enough’ for the three of them. 

Canary in the coal-mine

The preliminary events could have been the canary in the coal-mine but all three organizers seem to have tempted plenty of players. EPT Prague is celebrating its fifteenth edition, having pretty much grown year-on-year, breaking its own participation records in 2022. The €5,300 ($5,704) EPT Main Event is the big one but the €1,100 ($1,184) Eureka Main Event just got a field of 4,403, up 10% from 4,017 last year. 

The WPT World Championships have returned to the Wynn bigger and better than ever after cannonballing into the deep end of the pool last year. The 2022 edition doubled its record-setting $15m-Guarantee Main Event and this year it boasts an extraordinary $40m guarantee. The other marquee event on the schedule is the $1m Buy-In Big One for One Drop but as an appetite-whetter, the $5m Guaranteed WPT Prime attracted a breathtaking 10,512 entrants, almost doubling last year’s tally of 5,430.

15 bracelets and a combined $50m in total guarantees are up for grabs in Paradise

The GGPoker WSOP Bahamas is the new kid on the block, the pretender to the throne, trying to deal a body blow to its online and live rivals. A total of 15 bracelets and a combined $50m in total guarantees are up for grabs in Paradise and while last-minute promotions for this one did wreak of desperation, the $1,500 Mystery Millions and $1,650 Millionaire Maker got 3,446 and 3,496 entries respectively, both creeping over their guarantees. 

Spraggy, Savage, and Hellmuth weigh in

VegasSlotsOnline News caught up with representatives from Pokerstars and WPT to find out how they feel about their numbers so far. Pokerstars ambassador Ben Spragg acknowledged the competitive environment but was confident that the EPT Prague would more than hold its own:

“The team are absolutely delighted but I’m not surprised to see the Eureka breaking records once again. To hit such numbers, especially given what a busy time it is on the poker schedule, is a testament to the great offering by Pokerstars as well as the appetite for poker all over the world.”

WPT Executive Tour Director Matt Savage was similarly over the moon with how the WPT World Championship is heating up:

“The numbers for the WPT Prime Championship have far exceeded my expectations and this $1,100 price point will make this the best mid-major event in history! In addition, $1,100 is also the same buy-in for the very popular WPT World Championship ‘Milestone’ satellites which means that player is in Las Vegas and so I expect they will double and triple the guarantees on those as well.”

VSO News reached out to WSOP representatives for comment but in the absence of a response, here’s a video of the inimitable Phil Hellmuth pouting to Magic Man by Heart:?

You come at the King

Historically, the big operators have done their best to steer clear of one another but that has become more difficult in recent years as the live poker boom has created a fertile landscape. Clashes have been inevitable and last year, the WPT World Championship and EPT Prague went toe to toe. Given the 9,200km distance between the two venues, it seemed as though this would not be a pistols-at-dawn scenario and so it proved with the WPT defying all expectations while the EPT broke its own records. 

You come at the King, you best not miss

This year, GGPoker and WSOP threw their hat in the ring with a Winter Series in the Bahamas with the former providing satellite liquidity and some creative approaches to generating seats. Given what the WPT had achieved in just one year with the World Championships, this seemed like a business decision fraught with danger. You come at the King, you best not miss and if you do miss, have you perhaps set a dangerous precedent of players choosing a rival brand over your own?

The satellites on GGPoker underperformed leading to liquidity being siphoned from the regular online tournaments with winners receiving part of their prizes in live seats. With a month to go, emails went around offering high-profile players free packages. A promotional parlay was announced just a few weeks before the festival whereby cashers, finalists, and winners of Vegas bracelet events were heavily incentivized. A week out, there was even a ‘refer a friend’ and ‘two for the price of one’ offer. 

By hook or by crook

By hook or by crook, GGPoker and WSOP have, on the surface at least, met their guarantees on the preliminary events. They will probably get over the line on the Main Event too. One thing that is for sure is the live poker boom shows no signs of relenting and there is no doubt that it is the players who are benefitting from this particular three-way confrontation. 

In a Mexican standoff, there are no prearranged alliances but it is not unusual for two of the rivals to gang up on the third, often with an unspoken agreement to compete against each other once they get heads-up. Such an action in poker would be considered collusion as it is baked into the cake that everyone plays for themselves. Such an action in business is inherently anti-competitive but there are examples of it going unchecked. 

The consequence of this is an unsustainable amount of business

For instance, local small coffee shops have been trampled in big cities by two large chains, such as Costa and Starbucks, both opening branches on the same street. The consequence of this is an unsustainable amount of business for all but because the coffee have can afford to run a store at a loss for a while, and the smaller coffee shop cannot, the smaller one eventually goes out of business. Meanwhile, the two coffee giants gobble up half of their business each meaning they both turn a profit. The key difference here is all three poker brands have deep pockets and it would take an almighty pummelling, shift in the landscape, or government intervention to damage one of them meaningfully.

Nonetheless, I suspect that the WPT will emerge as the clear winner from this top-table poker trio. I think that EPT Prague will perform handsomely. The question is will WSOP Paradise be the ultimate fall guy, scraping home on paper but shelling out heaps behind the scenes to preserve their dignity? Will it be the Angel Eyes, shot into an open grave?