The mystery of the AFC North

Coming into the 2023 NFL season, the AFC North was expected to be the toughest division in football, but it’s now also become the sportsbooks’ worst nightmare.

longest odds to win the AFC North and the shortest Super Bowl odds

According to DraftKings sportsbook, the Cincinnati Bengals have both the longest odds to win the AFC North and the shortest Super Bowl odds of any team from the division.

How can the projected worst team in a group of four be the most likely to win the Super Bowl? And what about the other three teams? Let’s dive into what is already shaping up as one of the wackiest divisions in football history.

How to evaluate the Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals were about +1000 and a top-five pick to win the Super Bowl when the season kicked off at the start of September. They’d reached the AFC Championship Game two years running and had been to the Super Bowl in 2021 when they fell to the Los Angeles Rams.

But despite the heavy praise, the Bengals’ hopes were dashed when star QB Joe Burrow suffered a calf strain during training camp. The expectation was that he would miss time during the regular season, but Cincy opted to throw him out there, and the results have been less than promising.

Through three games, Burrow is on pace to post career worsts in yards per game, touchdown-to-interception ratio, completion percentage, and QBR. His calf also very clearly limits his mobility and makes him a sitting duck for opposing edge rushers, which the AFC North is chock-full of.

So how can they also have them as the leading Super Bowl candidate of the four?

DraftKings has the Bengals at +425 to win the division, behind the Cleveland Browns (+195), Baltimore Ravens (+195), and Pittsburgh Steelers (+350). So how can they also have them as the leading Super Bowl candidate of the four?

The Bengals (+2000 to win the Super Bowl) have stormed into the playoffs each of the last two seasons. They won eight straight games to close out 2022 and were on a three-game win streak in 2021 before they opted to rest their starters in Week 18. 

Only one team has started 0-3 and made the playoffs, which is why the Bengals threw Burrow back onto the field on Monday despite a reaggravation of his injury. The decision paid off in the short term with a win, but the season will still be an abject failure if they don’t make it back to the championship stage.

Landscape of the division 

The rest of the AFC North is also nothing more than guesswork at this point. The Browns, Ravens, and Steelers are all 2-1 and have reasonable cases that they are the best team in the division.

The Ravens (+2000 Super Bowl odds) could be 3-0 if not for a missed pass interference call on fourth down in overtime. They have won 69.9% of their games with Lamar Jackson under center and have a strong defense to complement.

lost star running back Nick Chubb to a torn MCL

The Browns (+2500 Super Bowl odds) have gotten off to a strong start, but they lost star running back Nick Chubb to a torn MCL in Week 2. But despite that, Deshaun Watson played the best game of his Browns career in Week 3, which has provided optimism that they can keep their ship headed on its current trajectory toward the postseason.

The Steelers (+5000 Super Bowl odds) are only 22nd in scoring offense and have allowed the fifth-most yards per game, but they’ve proven that they can win with this model. They went 9-8 in 2022 with a rookie quarterback and missing their best player, T.J. Watt, for seven games, and are an overall better team this year.

All four teams have tough tests over the weekend. The Browns will host the Ravens, the Steelers will take on the surprising Houston Texans, and the Bengals will meet the stout Tennessee Titans.

The Ravens are 19-3-1 against the spread in their last 23 games as underdogs and are +2.5 against the Browns. 

The Steelers are 2-1 ATS, but this is the first time they have been favored in 2023.

The Bengals 0-2-1 ATS and are facing a Titans squad that is 2-1 ATS and started last year 8-2 ATS.