Super Bowl futures bets roll in
Better to be early than late? Sportsbooks have already processed many high-profile Super Bowl futures bets despite the 2023 NFL season only just wrapping up its first week of play.
none of the five whales are backing teams in the top three for shortest odds
The largest wager thus far is fittingly on America’s team, but none of the five whales are backing teams in the top three for shortest odds: the San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, and Kansas City Chiefs.
So who exactly are these unnamed high-rollers looking at to win the Super Bowl, and which ones are the most likely to cash out? Let’s take a look.
Top five Super Bowl LVIII bets
#5: $1,000 to win $400,000 – Arizona Cardinals (+40000)
This wager for +40000 odds was placed at DraftKings Sportsbook and with a large dose of optimism at that.
The Cardinals’ Super Bowl odds are the worst in the entire league, behind even the Houston Texans. The Cardinals just went 4-13 last year, are down starting quarterback Kyler Murray, and have a rookie head coach in Jonathan Gannon leading the way.
According to implied probability, the Cardinals have just a 0.25% chance of winning the Super Bowl in 2024, and even that feels generous. They gained the fourth-fewest yards of the league during their 20-16 loss to the Washington Commanders in Week 1 and are firmly in the hunt for the top pick in the upcoming draft, potentially to draft USC star quarterback Caleb Williams.
Leicester City won the 2015-16 English Premier League title with +50000 odds, so we won’t call it impossible, but the largest underdog to win the Super Bowl was the 1999 St. Louis Rams, and even they were +15000.
#4: $4,000 to win $500,000 – Indianapolis Colts (+12500)
The Colts seemed to be heading straight for irrelevance this offseason. Fourth-overall pick and rookie QB Anthony Richardson was seen as needing the most polishing amongst top draft picks, 2021 Offensive Player of the Year runner-up Jonathan Taylor requested a trade, and the rest of the roster was littered with holes.
rooting for an all-time role reversal here
The Colts looked better than expected in their Week 1 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, but they are still 0-1 and now have the third-longest odds in the entire league. The Caesars bettor that placed this bet will be rooting for an all-time role reversal here.
If there’s anything to hold onto, it’s that Colts head coach Shane Steichen has worked wonders with young QBs such as Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts recently. But with an implied probability of 0.79%, it’s unlikely this bet will pull through.
#3: $20,000 to win $800,000 – Las Vegas Raiders (+4000)
The Raiders play in the gambling capital of the world, so it’s only fitting that at least one high-roller is backing the hometown heroes to win the whole shebang.
Vegas notched a one-point win over its AFC West rivals, the Denver Broncos, in Week 1. Their passing attack looked better than expected, and the defense was able to hold the Broncos to one of the lower-scoring outputs of the week.
The Raiders had the longest odds to win their division entering the season, which makes a bet on them to win the Super Bowl highly ambitious. The Caesars bettor responsible for this submission will have to overlook the 2.44% implied chance the Raiders have to win the Super Bowl to cash this bet.
#2: $25,000 to win $625,000 – Los Angeles Chargers (+2500)
The Chargers are also in the AFC West, which just so happens to be topped by a Kansas City Chiefs squad that has been to three of the last five Super Bowls, won two, and hosted five straight AFC Championship Games.
The Chargers have been the “What if?” team for the past couple of seasons. Their roster is overflowing with talent, but their injury history and questionable head coaching have kept them away from any notable preseason games—aside from last year, when they blew a 27-0 first-half lead to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
This will be a liability for Caesars if it hits, but the Chargers started their season with a home loss to the Miami Dolphins and still showed major defensive concerns. Implied probability states there’s a 3.85% chance the bet hits.
#1: $100,000 to win $1.6m – Dallas Cowboys (+1600)
As promised, it’s America’s team! The largest Super Bowl bet thus far, processed at Caesars, is on the Cowboys to do what they have failed to do since 1995, and that’s hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
stomped the New York Giants 40-0 on Sunday Night Football
No team looked better than the Cowboys in Week 1 of the new season as they stomped the New York Giants 40-0 on Sunday Night Football. They have one of the best defenses in the league and a highly capable offense that just needs Dak Prescott to stop turning the ball over to be elite.
Implied probability suggests this bet still has just about a 1-in-20 chance of hitting (5.88%), but Dallas does have the fourth-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl. Will this be their year?