Resounding disappointment
There has potentially never been a greater disappointment for sports bettors than the top-salaried teams in MLB in 2023.
all consistently lost spread bettors money
The New York Mets, New York Yankees, and San Diego Padres, who combined to spend close to $900m annually on player compensation, have all consistently lost spread bettors money, have losing records, and are likely to miss the playoffs.
The Mets already pulled the plug on their season when they traded Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and David Roberton less than a year after they let Jacob deGrom walk in free agency. It’s looking like a bitter end is also in store for the Yankees and Padres.
MLB bettors victimized
The Mets, Yankees, and Padres were top six in World Series odds at the start of the 2023 campaign. According to FanDuel sportsbook, the Yankees and Mets were +800 and the Padres were +950. The Yankees and Padres were second in odds in their respective leagues, and the Mets were joint-favorites in the National League with the Atlanta Braves.
At the time of writing, here’s how the Yankees, Mets, and Padres have performed for MLB bettors.
| Team | Record | ATS Record | Win Rate (%) | Cover Rate (%) | Overall Return ($10 bet per game, -110 odds) |
| New York Yankees | 62-68 | 61-69 | 47.7 | 46.9 | $-135.51 |
| New York Mets | 60-71 | 53-78 | 45.8 | 40.5 | $-298.23 |
| San Diego Padres | 61-70 | 63-68 | 46.6 | 48.1 | $-107.33 |
The Mets’ spread record is the worst in the entire league. The Yankees’ is eighth-worst, and the Padres’ is 11th-worst.
The Padres’ concerns were evident from the start. They had a strong top of the order with Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Xander Bogaerts, but the rest of the offense paled in comparison.
could not elevate the Mets anywhere close to their preseason projections
The Mets’ issue was also inconsistency at the plate, as well as a lack of starter depth. Scherzer and Verlander (39 and 40 years old, respectively) also showed their age in the form of declines in play and injuries and could not elevate the Mets anywhere close to their preseason projections.
The Yankees were the best of the three and had a record of 35-25 when Aaron Judge got injured. They went into a major offensive decline and are now 24-30 and score just 3.8 runs per game without him in the lineup, compared to 38-38 and 4.5 runs with him involved.
Time for new start(s)
There’s still a little over a month left until the playoffs start—but according to ESPN, the Mets have a 0.4% chance to make the playoffs, the Yankees are even worse at .1%, and the Padres are the “frontrunners” at 2.7%.
Players from all three teams have made their frustrations known recently. Padres’ slugger Manny Machado, who is still having a great individual season, brutalized a cooler during a game recently.
A member of the Mets also told Puma that Verlander, who was traded to the Houston Astros ahead of the deadline, often complained about the team’s analytics department and said that it was not up to snuff with other organizations in the league.
Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays’ Brandon Lowe roasted the Yankees after a recent outing, referring to them only as a “last-place team.”
It is, in all likelihood, too late to save these teams this season. The question becomes whether or not they will stick together through the offseason, one in which Shohei Ohtani will be a priority target for all 30 ball clubs.
The Yankees also just signed Judge to the largest contract in league history last offseason and still have Gerrit Cole, who locked up the league’s fourth-largest contract in 2019.
Machado is on the fifth-highest-grossing deal, and Bogaerts the seventh-most-expensive deal. Scherzer and Verlander each made the joint-highest-annual salary while they were with the Mets before the deadline.