The Super Bowl MVP race

Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes are early favorites to win Super Bowl LVII MVP at most sportsbooks. 

based on both historical precedent and recent performances

While quarterbacks always get the plaudits, the current odds are overlooking several candidates that have very strong chances of winning the MVP. That’s based on both historical precedent and recent performances.

Let’s dive into which players are being overlooked in MVP markets, and why they have so much value.

Don’t ignore history

The most likely non-QB MVP, according to the sportsbooks, is Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (+1100 at BetMGM). He already has three touchdowns in two games this postseason and set a postseason record for most catches in a game (14) in the divisional round against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Two of the last four Super Bowl MVP winners have been pass catchers: Cooper Kupp and Julian Edelman. Kelce is also etching his name further into football lore, having recently moved into second place for all-time playoff receptions and touchdowns. It is not unreasonable to expect him to go for at least 100 yards and a touchdown in the big game, and the combination of that with his movement up the all-time charts could sway MVP results.

Philly running back Miles Sanders (+2800) is another player that is being criminally overlooked in Super Bowl MVP betting markets. He made the Pro Bowl for the first time in his career this season, meaning that his reputation around the league is growing, and ran for two touchdowns in an NFC Championship Game win over the San Francisco 49ers.

Hurts is averaging just 174 total yards in these playoffs

Sanders’ chances are also buoyed by his quarterback having a history of underperforming in postseason games. Hurts is averaging just 174 total yards in these playoffs and was even worse in college. 

In five postseason games at the University of Alabama and the University of Oklahoma, Philly’s QB averaged a lowly 157.8 total yards and 50% completion rate to go with six touchdowns and an interception. Very pedestrian for a supposed odds-on favorite, though, to be fair, that was college and now he’s a Pro Bowl starter.

Great value

While Mahomes and Hurts are stealing the shine, two of the best defensive players in the game this year are readying to suit up.

Eagles pass rusher Haason Reddick (+3000) tied for the second-most sacks (16) and most forced fumbles (five) in the regular season and has 3.5 sacks and another forced fumble in two postseason games. He was also the player who knocked Niners QB Brock Purdy out of the game after getting to him with a sweet move past a blocker.

still dealing with the after effects of a high ankle sprain

Mahomes worked wonders in the AFC Championship Game, but is still dealing with the after-effects of a high ankle sprain and is not as mobile as he normally is. If Reddick picks up a couple of sacks and the Eagles win a low-scoring game, he could easily win MVP of the game.

On the other side, Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones (+5000) can also wreak havoc on a game. He was responsible for 15.5 sacks in the regular season and brought down Burrow twice in the AFC Championship en route to a 23-20 win.

The Eagles are a smashmouth football team that will run early and run often – this will give Jones a ton of opportunities for tackles for loss, and when Hurts tries to scramble from the pocket, sacks. 

There’s no guarantee that Hurts (+110) or Mahomes (+125) won’t win the award – after all, quarterbacks have won Super Bowl MVP far more than any other position – but there are a lot of players with tremendous value that are being heavily overlooked.